MM #16: Storytell In Reverse

Use to determine causation more effectively.

Now that you've learned a mental model to stop confusing correlation with causation, we delve deeper into causation than the five whys technique from the previous mental model. For those of us who are more artistically inclined, this is your moment to shine.

A fishbone diagram is a method that allows you to identify multiple potential causes for a problem or an effect. Being able to infer causes based on an observed effect is an integral aspect of deduction, especially when it comes to problem-solving. Fleshing out a list of all the possible causes of a problem simultaneously provides you with a blueprint of the specific factors you need to focus on to ultimately find viable solutions.

The fishbone diagram is so structured that those causes are placed in categories, so you get a more orderly perspective of the entire situation. It's a more organized way of working in reverse from effect to cause and is a frequently used tool for structuring brainstorming sessions. The end product is a visual display of all the factors - both from a micro and a macro perspective - that play a role in leading to the effect or the problem.

To make a fishbone diagram, first write a problem statement or effect somewhere in the middle right portion of a whiteboard or any writing surface you've chosen. Draw a box around it, then a horizontal line across the page that ends in that problem box. That box will serve as the "head" of the fishbone.

Next, draw the "bones" of the body by sketching widely spaced vertical lines that come out of the main horizontal line. Draw bones above and below the main line, slightly slanting away from the head of the fishbone. These bones will be labeled with the different categories of the causes you come up with. It's up to you to name the categories that apply to the problem you're working on.

Every time you come up with a possible cause for the problem, write it down as a connection to the particular "bone" it's categorized under. You can write the same cause under multiple categories, if applicable. Then, for each noted cause, continue asking what might've caused it and write it down as a connection to that cause - and so on until you can no longer think of a more primary cause. This will allow you to exercise your deductive reasoning skills until you arrive at the most fundamental root causes of the problem.

When you're done with the diagram, scrutinize the causes you've listed and consider the evidence regarding it. How much does the identified cause really contribute to creating the effect? Is its link with the problem well-established and significant enough to consider seriously? Get into the habit of thinking, "What would make this cause a true and significant factor in the problem at hand?"

For example, say you're a hotel manager trying to understand the causes of low customer satisfaction ratings for your hotel service. Write the problem in a box as the fishbone "head" and the categories of possible causes (in this case, the four P's of service industries) as the main "bones." Doing this, the initial stages of your fishbone diagram would look like so:

Then start filling in each category with possible causes. For example, you've identified that possible causes for the problem are (1) the slow resolution of customer complaints and (2) the hotel staff's inability to be sensitive to the customers' needs, thus leading the customer to being dissatisfied with the service.

Asking yourself why your staff may lack sensitivity to customer needs, you may consider that they work such long hours that they are reduced to providing just the bare minimum of service; they no longer have enough energy to pay more attention to customers' more specific needs. Given that, your fishbone diagram would now indicate the following:

Continuing the process of asking yourself why the problem exists, you start identifying more possible causes and noting them under the given categories, leading your diagram to look something like this:

By systematically working backward from the problem to the causes, you get to identify specific aspects of your situation that you can then address accordingly. The fishbone diagram is a tool that effectively focuses your efforts to solve the problem at its roots - or, in this case, at its bones.

It's a great way to guide your thinking in the process of reverse storytelling, as it allows you to concretely trace how the problem is linked back to specific causative factors.

Try observing a scene, a person, or any other thing and observing ten details about it. Then, for each of those details, write down five possible causes that may have led that particular detail to be the way it is. Try to vary the potential causes you list down, ranging from the plainly realistic to the downright bizarre. This will train your ability to create a story around every detail and consider what preceded it, thus exercising your skills in reverse storytelling.